A: I believe so. If you take a look at what I wrote back on Feb. 1st, I saIdent, “2003 should be the year when common stocks again outperform high-quality, fixed income securities. Both the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve are trying to reverse investors’ preference for liquidity, arising from a three-year bear market and on fears of domestic and global terrorism, by raising the after tax returns on common stocks and by pushing money market rates close to zero. The combination of dividends tax relief, reduction in capital gains tax rate on common stocks, acceleration in the reduction in marginal tax rates and better earnings expected from positive cost cutting, and it could mean that the biggest risk could be in not taking a risk. Accelerating the rate of economic growth, higher common stock prices require risk taking. The groundwork is being laid to bring risk taking back into vogue.”
We believe if you go back to July 23, 2002, Oct. 9, 2002, March 11, 2003, with the true low point being Oct. 9, we got a triple bottom and we think the bear market is over. Hopefully, it will not be a runaway bull market because it is short lived. But I think we are in a period of rising stock prices, i.e. that the market is going to have more things, more of the wind at its back than in its face over the coming, let’s say, 12 to 18 months. |