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Market Update Analysis: 
Oil at Peak, Lowest Unemployment in 4 Yrs
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 9:07 PM ET August 05 2005


Treasury’s return of 30-year bond to take advantage of the thin spread between long and short term bonds is still fresh in the market. Oil stays high and trades higher in the day as traders find every reason to push oil to a new high level. Strong employment level and lowest unemployment level since Sept 2001 will lead to more consumption in the second half. Baidu.com IPO jumps 350%.

 
U.S. AVERAGES

At the end market could not shake-off the inflation worries. The dip in the early trading on the news on stable unemployment level and higher than expected new jobs creations was overshadowed by the rising cost of employment.

The week end, higher oil prices and markets nearness to the four year-high levels have put several investors in profit taking mood.

In a hot IPO market, five companies priced shares raising $800 million. Baidu.com priced 4 million shares at $27 per share. The Chinese search engine company, in the first half of 2005, generated revenue of $14 million with profit of less than $2 million. The company at current stock valuation is worth close to $3.6 billion.

Investors could not shake off the fears of inflation amidst rising wages and rising oil and gasoline prices. For the last two weeks eleven refineries have experienced shut downs in the Gulf of Mexico and traders worry that the peak 4Q demand may not be met.

It was only a month ago that traders worried that the 3Q driving season will stretch the supply from the refineries. Of course, there was ample supply to meet the needs of the highway travelers.

The July employment grew and June employment was revised upwards however the hourly payroll cost rose by 0.4%.

During the trading tech stocks gained. Dell, Apple, and Microsoft traded higher. The large semi stocks gained in the session. Motorola, IBM, Intel, AMD and LSI participated in the brief rally.

ECONOMIC NEWS

Non-farm employment grew by 207,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the month, payroll employment rose in many service-providing industries.

Both the number of unemployed persons, 7.5 million, and the unemployment
rate, 5.0 percent, were unchanged in July. A year earlier, the number of unemployed was 8.2 million and the jobless rate was 5.5 percent.

Over the month, the unemployment rates for most major worker groups—adult men (4.3 percent), adult women (4.7 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), whites (4.3 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (5.5 percent)--showed little or no change. The jobless rate for blacks declined from 10.3 to 9.5 percent over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 5.2 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

Average hourly earnings of production or non-supervisory workers on private non-farm payrolls rose by 6 cents in July to $16.13, seasonally adjusted. Average weekly earnings increased by 0.4 percent over the month to $543.58. Over the year, both average hourly and weekly earnings grew by 2.7 percent.


INTERNATIONAL MARKET NEWS

Asian-Pacific benchmarks closed lower, pressured by climbing crude-oil prices, weakness in U.S. markets and political uncertainty in Japan, referring to postal privatization. The Japanese Nikkei tumbled 1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi slid 1.98%. Crude-oil ended up 52 cents at $61.38 a barrel on the NYME. The dollar was trading at 111.23 in Tokyo foreign exchange.

European markets were mixed in mid-day dealings on rising crude-oil prices, corporate earnings with Barclays and Michelin among the gainers, and on U.S. non-farm payroll data due later in the day. The German DAX 30 lost 0.3%, the French CAC 40 was flat, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3% mainly on airline gains.

ENERGY, METALS AND CURRENCIES MARKETS

Crude-oil prices advanced for a sixth consecutive session on accelerating pace of the economy and expectations of increased fuel needs as a consequence. Light sweet crude for September delivery rose 93 cents to $62.31 a barrel on the NYMEX touching close to all-time intra-day high of $62.50 this week.

September gasoline and heating oil futures closed up 3.27 cents and 2.34 cents at $1.835 per gallon and $1.73 a gallon respectively.

Gold futures traded slightly up, while mining stocks declined after better-than-expected U.S. employment data were released and gave the U.S. dollar a boost, but lowered interest in metals markets. Gold for December delivery rose 40 cents to $444.10 per troy ounce on the NYMEX.

Silver for September delivery fell 3.2 cents to 47.22 per ounce. September copper contract declined 0.35 cents to $1.651 a pound.
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