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Market Update Analysis: 
Dow UP 5.3%, Nasdaq UP 4.6%
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 7:50 PM EST March 17 2006


Broader averages found their stable footings in a month when investors are ready for a sell-off. Techs lagged the gains in broader averages but still managed to rise. Crude oil and natural gas advanced 6% and 7% respectively. General Motors closed 5% lower on accounting errors and 2005 loss revision by $2 billion. Emerging markets had a sharp correction in the Middle East but Mexico, Brazil and India gained for the week.

 
4:15PM AVERAGES ADVANCE NEAR SIX YEAR PEAK FOR THE WEEK.

DOW 11,279.65 UP 26.41
S&P 1,307.25 UP 1.92
NASDAQ 2,306.48 UP 6.92

- Crude oil $62.77 down 81 cents today but up 6% for the week.
-Natural gas closed down 21 cents to $7.02 and up 7% for the week.
-Gold closed down 30 cents to $555.10 per ounce.

-Home builders rise for the day and every day of the week. Brokers rise again.
-February industrial production rose 0.7% and in January dropped 0.3%


Market for the most part traded higher and near the five-year record level however, Nasdaq continued to show weak performance. For the week Dow rose 1.8% and Nasdaq and S&P rose 2%. S&P chalked up gains for the last six days in a row. Trading volume was heavy on NYSE and Nasdaq. For the year Dow, Nasdaq and S&P rose 5.3%, 4.6% and 4.7%. Profit decline and estimate miss by AIG (AIG: chart) and accounting errors at General Motors (GM: chart) of $2 billion did not affect the averages. GM and AIG declined 4.9% and 0.6% for the day. Home builders and brokers led advancers and energy stocks declined. Oil declined for the day but rose 6% and natural gas rose 7% for the week. Gold and silver were unchanged for the week. Emerging markets faced sharp correction in the Middle East but Brazil, Mexico and India advanced for the week.


3:30PM Emerging Markets for the week advance. Middle East in sharp correction.
Indian market remains a favorite destination of emerging market investors. For the week the index rose 0.9% and industrial, media, banks and software consulting companies rose. The markets in Gulf region suffered worst declines ever in Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Egypt. Indexes in Dubai, Egypt and Saudi Arabia lost between 20% and 30% this week. Since 2002 these markets have gained between 600% and 1,200% before this correction. Markets in Russia and Turkey closed up 2.4% and 0.65% respectively. Brazil faced resistance as broader corruption scandal may impact finance minister and investors are worried that reforms may come to a halt. Ahead of Monday’s option expiry Petrobras and Telemar lost 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. Mexico notched up gains on every single day of this week however several large cap stocks came under pressure including Cemex and American Movil. Cemex reported on Thursday that first quarter revenue will rise 51% from a year ago and revenue will be close to $3.9 billion. India closed 19 points lower but still near record high at 10,860 and this week notched up three new record closes.


2:00PM General Motors raises another flag of worries.
General Motors (GM: chart) stock lost 3% on the news that the company has revised its 2005 annual loss from $8.6 billion to $10.6 billion and company is to restate earnings back to 2000 due to accounting errors and liabilities related to Delphi spin-offs. The accounting errors included healthcare expenses in 2002, retiree benefits in 2002, 2003 and 2004 and credit received from Delphi recorded as reduction in stock holder’s equity. The total of additional $2 billion losses resulted from $400 million of restructuring charges for the North American operations, $1.3 billion added to the reserve to cover future liabilities related to Delphi bankruptcy filings and $439 million related to commercial financial business of GMAC. GM has said in the past that its pension and healthcare liability related to Delphi employees is not known and can be anywhere between $5.5 billion and $12 billion.


12:30PM European markets closed off highs.
European markets closed mixed, erasing some of the earlier gains made on the back of strong insurance stocks, including Zurich Financial, surging 12%, followed by Prudential and Royal & Sun, each climbing 5%. London FTSE 100 spearheaded gainers, reaching a five-year high, but eventually closed off intraday highs, up 0.1%.The French CAC 40 rose 0.3%, while the he German DAX 30 shed 0.3%.

Crude oil prices eased back after the OPEC lowered its demand forecast for 2006. Light sweet crude April delivery fell 30 cents to $63.28 a barrel. Gasoline fell 1 cent to $1.8622. Heating oil fell marginally to $1.8094. Natural gas slipped 6 cents to $7.200 per 1,000 cubic feet. London Brent for April delivery lost 18 cents to $64.03 a barrel. European gold gained advanced Friday. In London gold advanced to $554.10 bid per troy ounce, up from $549.70. In Zurich the precious metal rose to $554.70 from $548.60. In Hong Kong gold climbed $3 to $554.30. Silver closed at $10.30, up from $10.10. The U.S. dollar traded mixed against other major currencies. The euro traded at $1.2168, down from $1.2177. The dollar bought 116.15 yen, down from 116.79. The British pound was quoted at $1.7534, down from $1.7570.


11:30AM Stocks traded in a narrow range.
The Dow Jones managed to sustain most of the gains it made at the opening of the session, but has traded in a range for the majority of the morning. The index is now up around 11 points. The Nasdaq has been trading in a tight range, presently up about 1 point.

The Industrial sector was leading the market, adding to gains made during the week. Transportation stocks also built on recent strength. Boeing (BA: chart) was the most conspicuous gainer within the Dow, currently up 1.3%, trading at a new high for the year. United Technologies (UTX: chart) rose 1.2%, challenging resistance at the highs of the year. Other notable movers to the upside were Merck (MRK: chart), Pfizer ((PFE) and General Electric (GE: chart), each rising 0.8%. General Motors (GM: chart) was the largest decliner among Dow components, currently lower by around 3.2%. The stock dropped on announcement that company would delay the filing of its annual report, due to an accounting issue. American International Group (AIG: chart) was another source of weakness. The stock fell 2.4% on disappointing Q4 earnings. Among other gaining stocks, Tektronix Inc. (TEK: chart) shares surged 7% after the company reported upbeat fiscal Q3 earnings. SBA Communications Corp. (SBAC: chart) stock added 4% after the company agreed to acquire AAT Communications Corp. for nearly $1 billion in cash and stock. Rambus Inc. (RMBS: chart) rallied more than 6% on a technology license agreement with IBM. Shares of William Lyon Homes (WLS: chart) soared 31% after the company launched an offer to buy all remaining shares of the company at $93 each.


10:30AM Upbeat economic data sent stocks in the positive.
Stocks advanced slightly as a rebound in industrial production offset disappointing earnings news from General Motors Corp. and American International Group Inc. The Fed Reserve’s report showed that February industrial output rebounded from last-month decline of 0.3% to rise by 0.7%, slightly below the expected 0.9% rise. The market weighed a mixed consumer report, showing March consumer-sentiment index at 86.7, unchanged from the prior month but below economists' prediction of 88. Among stocks, GM (GM: chart) further rattled auto investors with news that its exposure to Delphi Corp.'s bankruptcy could be 56% more than originally estimated, and that costs to cover plant closings would be $500 million more. Google Inc. (GOOG: chart) expects its 2006 capital expenditures to exceed significantly the $838.2 million it spent last year. In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones gained 24.09, or 0.21%. The S&P’s 500 index was up 1.97, or 0.15%, at 1,307.30, hitting a five-year high, and the Nasdaq rose 0.35, or 0.02%. Bonds retreated from a recent rally, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note edging up to 4.67% from 4.64% late Thursday. Volume was sharply higher as options and futures contracts expired.


9:45AM Stocks opened higher ahead of economic data.
U.S. stocks opened higher with investors awaiting consumer sentiment data. Market largely ignored disappointing news from insurer AIG which reported sharp profit decline and automaker General Motors which said that its 2005 loss was steeper than expected. However, trading activity is expected to be volatile because of the expiration of key options contracts. The Dow Jones was up 20.49 points, or 0.18%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 2.52 points, or 0.19%. The Nasdaq was up 4.60 points, or 0.20%. In early trading the housing sector stood out as the most notable mover to the upside, rising 1.3%, building on gains posted throughout the week.

Industrial output rose 0.7% compared with expectations of 0.9% increase.
The Federal Reserve released its report on industrial production and capacity utilization in the month of February on Friday, showing that industrial production rebounded after falling in the previous month. The report showed that industrial production rose by 0.7 percent compared to a revised decrease of 0.3 percent in January. Economists had been expecting industrial production to grow by 0.9 percent compared to the 0.2 percent decrease originally reported for January. The increase in industrial production reflected a rebound in utilities output, which rose 7.9 percent in February after falling 11.5 percent in January. The Fed said that the rebound came as the weather moved closer to seasonal norms after January's warm temperatures. The report also showed that mining output fell 0.5 percent in February after increasing by 2.3 percent in January, while manufacturing production was unchanged in February after a gain of 0.8 percent in January. The Fed also said that the capacity utilization rate rose to 81.2 percent in February from 80.8 percent in January. The increase came in below economist estimates of an increase to 81.5 percent.
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