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Market Update Analysis: 
Diverging Records in Oil and Dollar
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 5:27 PM EDT September 12 2007


Oil traded at record intrady prices and managed to put traders on alert. The record high oil and persistent weakness in dollar dragged stocks lower. The debate on rate cut focused on viability of two successive 50 basis points cuts. Oil complex stocks in the U.S. and Europe jumped. Weekly petroleum inventory report in the U.S. showed 7.1 million barrel fall in inventory. The surprise decline sparked rally in oil. Dollar fell for the sixth day in a row against euro.

 
4:30PM New York, 10:30PM Frankfurt, 2:00 AM Mumbai

Market averages in New York traded rose sharply as investors focused on health of global economy. European markets jumped led by financial stocks. Brazil rebounded.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13% or 16.74 to 13,291.65, Nasdaq lost 5.40 to 2,592.07, and S&P 500 added 0.07 to 1,471.56.

FTSE 100 Index in London soared 146.60 or 2.39% to 6,280.70, in Tokyo Nikkei 225 closed at 15,797.60, down 0.5% or 80.07, and in Brazil, iBovespa Index traded down 0.09% or 46.39 to 53,874.18.

Yields edged higher on 10-year U.S. bonds and closed at 4.40% and 30-year bond rose to close at 4.68%.

Crude oil increased $0.74 to close at $79.91 per barrel record close for a front month contract, natural gas closed up 51 cents to $6.44 per mBtu, and gasoline futures added 3.5 cents to close at 201.60 cents per gallon.

Gold lost $0.40 in New York trading to close at $720.70 per ounce, silver closed 4 cents lower to close at $12.84 per ounce, and copper for August month deliver in London gained $318 to $7,538.00 per pound in New York trading.

In New York trading averages closed near where they closed yesterday. The euphoria of rate cut that pervaded market was cut short by rising crude oil and natural gas prices. Crude oil jumped to intra-day high of $80.18 after the weekly inventory report. The government reported large decline in crude oil inventory sparking the rally. The usual mix of weather news, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and fire in Alaskan field put oil traders on the edge. Weekly report showed a decline of 7.1 million barrels in inventory.

The supply worries continued when there is no sign of demand slowdown. International Energy Agency lowered its oil demand outlook for the year and said it will monitor the demand pattern in the U.S. The current credit market malaise and slowdown in housing market is likely to cut the oil demand. Global demand for oil consumption is driven by steady rise in demand in China and India and modest increases in Europe and America but at a significantly higher base than the demand in Asia.

Dollar fell against euro for the sixth day in a row and is likely to weaken in the coming weeks. One euro fetched 1.39 dollar at the end of trading in New York. If the Fed manages to cut interest rate in the coming months that will put more stress in dollar value in the international markets. The comments from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson indicated that financial markets may remain volatile for a while. He also added that the subprime loan market may take a while to calm down. Dollar has fallen 2% against euro in the last week.

Global investors are looking for the U.S. economy to slow down and expectations of rate cut hurts the dollar value in the international markets. European economies are expected to maintain economic growth rate and ECB may hike the rate in the coming months. Dollar is likely to lose between 4% and 6% for the rest of the year against euro and pound.

Of the 30 stocks in Dow Jones Industrial Average listed, 15 closed lower, 14 closed higher, and 1 closed unchanged. General Electric led the gainers in the index with a rise of 1.3% followed by 1% gains in 3M and ExxonMobil. Hewlett Packard led the decliners with a fall of 1.8% followed by a loss of 1.6% in Alcoa, 1.4% in Caterpillar, and 1% in IBM.

Of the stocks in S&P 500, 270 stocks closed lower and 222 gained, 8 stocks closed unchanged. Ten stocks in index lost more than 4%. Twenty six stocks fell more than 2%. King Pharmaceuticals led the decliners with a loss of 6% followed by fall of 4.6% in SanDisk, 4.3% in Teradyne, 3.9% in Nvidia, 3.6% in Apollo Group, and 3.2% in E*Trade. Humana led the gainers with a rise of 4.7% followed by increases of 4.6% in Mattel, 3.7% in Cigna, 3.4% in MGIC, and 3.3% in Lehman Brothers.

In European Markets trading indexes closed higher. Indexes in Switzerland, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain increased. Switzerland led the gainers with a rise of 0.8% followed by 0.5% in France, 0.4% increase in UK and Italy, and 0.35% in the Netherlands.

In Latin Markets trading Chile led the decliners with a fall of 1.30% followed by losses of 0.50% in Argentina and 04% in Mexico. Of the 63 stocks in iBovespa 23 gained, 39 lost, and 1 closed unchanged. Comgas led the decliners in the index with a loss of 4.6% followed by declines of 3.8% in Perdigao, and 3.7% in Telemig and Net Servicos.

Brazil reported second quarter economic growth increase of 5.4% from a year ago on higher consumer spending and declining interest rates. The consumer spending rose 5.7%, spending by business increased at 6.8%, and service sector grew at 4.8%. The eighteen interest rates cuts since the year 2005 have helped economic expansion to continue. Business spending is likely to remain robust as company earnings have increased at more than 15% for this year. Forty two new companies are listed on exchanges in Brazil for the year so far.

Separately monthly measure of inflation increased 0.8% at the end of four week period on Sept 10. At close in New York trading Real jumped 0.8% to close at 1.91 to a dollar, up12% for the year so far.


1:30PM New York, 6:30PM London - UK stocks rose marginally helped by strength in consumer and oil stocks. Average London salaries rose 3.5% in August, as unemployment fall to 2.6%. Bank of England chief wants market to sober up.

Stocks in London gained for the second day in a row in mixed trading. FTSE 100 closed up 0.4% extending a gain of 2.4% from yesterday. Of the 102 stocks in the index, 66 stocks rose, 32 dropped and 4 were unchanged. Of the index stocks, 28 shares rose between 1% and 3.5%.

In London trading FTSE 100 finished up 0.4% or 24.9 at 6,305.60 on higher investor confidence. Consumer and oil shares rose, as real estate reversed previous gains.
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