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Market Update Analysis: 
Deere & Company Third Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Albena Toncheva
123jump.com
Last Update: 9:05 AM EDT August 17 2007


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The leading farm equipment maker reported revenue of $6.63 billion, an increase of 6% from $6.27 billion in prior year, on 5% strong in global machinery sales. The company is integrating LESCO into John Deere landscapes and LESCO was slightly profitable in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2007, the firm expects company-wide equipment operations net sales to be up about 16%, with sales from LESCO and positive currency translation accounting for about half of that increase.

 
Mike Mack: No we don’t at all. The way we run our credit company, we have a very tight management, for interest rate risk management and I wouldn’t anticipate any impact on that at all really.

Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): The other income is bouncing around a lot. Shall we think of this quarter as a trend-line or the average of the last couple of quarters, thinking about that $21.8 million other operating expense number which was versus $48 million last quarter?

Marie Zeigler: The other operating expense is a whole host of little items that affected it, conversely in the fourth quarter and by its very nature you understand this is somewhat hard to predict because it is miscellaneous. But by our forecast, would have it flipping around so the fact that you’re a little light versus a year ago in the third quarter would be made up in the fourth quarter. I don’t have any more insights frankly than that similar comment in terms of our other income as well.

Michael (Gabelli & Company): You showed the provision for the credit losses which seems to be going off albeit slightly and still low on historical levels. What segments do you see those losses in? How much is in C & F?

Marie Zeigler: We have had extremely low levels in all of our businesses, it would be true that we would be keeping a little closer eye on C & F and on consumers as well, but they continue to remain comfortably below historic levels. There’s no story there.

Barry Bannister (Steifel Nicolaus): You bumped up your ag segment trade receivables and inventories by a couple hundred million, it accounted for 80% of the full year change. Since you’re increasing your production tonnage in North American ag by 63% in Q4 against a minus 17 a year ago, how much of that build is sub-assemblies that not yet made it to the finished goods stage? Is it a production issue all the way to the finished good, were you getting the equipment ready for its final sale?

Marie Zeigler: It’s raw materials and components. There’s very little in the way of finished goods. That would be in that $200 million change from our previous guidance.

Barry Bannister: I presume that your production is somewhat in line with both your market growth forecast and your market share forecast. I’ve noticed that your market share is flipped versus the industry. Would you comment on the market conditions and why Deere share is down this year and what’s caused that?

Marie Zeigler: We talk about the fact that market shares need to be looked at over a long period of time in any given month. You can have an awful lot of flexibility. When we went into the year, knowing that we had seen commodity prices run dramatically in October, which is right ahead of the end of our previous fiscal year. We talked about the fact that we expect that we would get off to a relatively slow start on a retail basis in the first part of the year and build momentum as we move through the year, and that is certainly played out. We again expect to continue to build momentum as we move through the year and, in any given month market share is somewhat a noise in terms of what happens one way or the other.

Mark Koznarak (Cleveland Research): You mentioned about the $200 million of extra ag inventory and receivables; is there an earnings impact to that build-up of components that contributed to all to your bottom line?

Marie Zeigler: But you get some absorption on that change, if you will, yet again, it’s about $200 million, but you don’t get the margin from selling that and the benefit if you will in our fourth quarter for our ag operations would be in round numbers about $20 million.

Mark Koznarak: In Brazil, as you’re starting up and you’re going to be transitioning production between the two facilities, that in 2008 will clearly have production volume to offset the expenses you’ve been incurring down there. Do you get into positive contribution to earnings in 2008 based on the ramp up that you’re expecting or is it less of an expense?

Marie Zeigler: At this time our forecast would say it’s less of an expense because you’re still looking at low levels of production volumes even as you start into fiscal 2008, because as you’re transitioning, we’ve got a lot of training, brand new factories, some new people, a lot of activity down there.

Mark Koznarak: What does the overall start-up schedule look like? When do you expect to be up at? Is there a normal level of volume production that you’re targeting but how should we look at the ramp-up period?

Marie Zeigler: We’ll start in the fall and then continue to ramp-up through the Northern Hemisphere’s winter anyway, and we have some flexibility depending on what happens with market conditions. We don’t have a firm date that we’ll be complete with that ramp-up.

Jamie Cook (Credit Suisse): On the Construction and Forestry business, you did mention that the commercial construction business are non-res was 8% or something. How are you looking at that going forward?

Marie Zeigler: Our forecast by the way, that was industry forecast for US spend and we have it up by about 8% this year, we have it up about 2% next year, so the rate of growth would slow but we still see positive growth there, and you heard that we see housing stabilizing at about 1.4% in 2008.

Daniel Dowd (Bernstein): I notice that your 2007/2008 previous forecast in your updated forecast show a good deal of volatility, you’re projecting corn to be down quite a bit from where you were three months ago, but you’re also predicting wheat and soy beans to be up a good deal. Can you talk about the things you’re seeing in the marketplace that are leading you to move these estimates around?

Marie Zeigler: They’d be the same sorts of things that you would be looking at. We’ve seen nearby futures come in just a little bit but you still see extremely good levels; you get into 2009 and you’re seeing corn over $4 in the futures market, and so we’re taking a look at basically the same things that you are in terms of trying to adjust what we see in our forecast.

Daniel Dowd: Your total farm cash receipts estimates for 2008 is flat from your 2007 estimates. Do you have any other commentary on that, other than your view of corn prices?
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