David Bleustein (UBS): Can you give sense for the size of the facility in Brazil, either a tractor capacity or expected revenues in 2008 or expected run-rate in 2009?
Marie Z. Ziegler: We decline to answer for competitive reasons. It improves our ability to respond to the market, not only in the horsepowers in which we had traditionally competed in but it has also allowed us to broaden our horsepower offerings. The first two models that were in production in Montenegro are higher horsepower tractors - 180 and 200 horsepower, and they were ones that we did not previously manufacture in Horizontina.
David Bleustein (UBS): Which raw materials are driving the expected increase in 2008?
Marie Z. Ziegler: We are assuming that there will be some higher tire prices based on what we have already seen. We think in our landscape business because of where oil prices are, that will drive some higher costs for irrigation pipe and those oil prices will affect our inbound logistics. We are in contract negotiations for steel right now, so we prefer to take a pass on that, but that gives some idea of the things that we are thinking about.
David Bleustein (UBS): Are there a lot of global opportunities for you to invest your dollars at your current financial targets?
Michael J. Mack, Jr.: We have a lot more focus and resource devoted to this now than we did a year ago. You have to have a number in the pipeline to make these come to fruition. We are going to maintain a disciplined approach towards this in terms of our criteria and we are not going to deviate from that. These have to at the end of the day create economic profit or we are not going to be investing in it. We are active in virtually all our divisions in lots of geographies looking for opportunities.
Daniel Dowd (Sanford C. Bernstein): You mentioned that in Braziliana there were uncertainties around government-backed financing programs. Can you give color on that?
Marie Z. Ziegler: Our plan for 2008 has those farmers is required to make their tsunami-backed payments on the 17th of December. That is what the legislation is, and about two-thirds of our customers have already made their payments.
There are some constituents in Brazil continuing to lobby the government for potentially an extension or for some additional terms, and so until we get to that date and see what happens with that. Our business plans are all based on those farmers making those payments on the 17th of December.
Daniel Dowd (Sanford C. Bernstein): You indicated that prices were up in construction. Can you talk about the market conditions on hardware and were there specific things that were driving that?
Marie Z. Ziegler: It would be our price realization, which is a combination of list prices, and what happens with the discounts. You have to attribute some portion of this to the excellent discipline that we have had in our asset management. We are proud of what has been accomplished there in terms of the success of our build-to-order. It is called estimate-to-cash in that division, in terms of responding to the changing market conditions. That is in contrast, candidly, to what we have done in the past. It is a reflection of the discipline with the FCA and the OROA. In any quarter, you can always get some unusual things. Our outlook is cautious in terms of what is happening with pricing.
Daniel Dowd (Sanford C. Bernstein): Is it your view that the inventory draw-down that you and others have done in that sector over the last three years has stabilized pricing generally, or do you think this is just Deere absorbed this and other manufacturers did not?
Marie Z. Ziegler: I have no way of responding to what other manufacturers have been doing. I can only comment on Deere. It is a reflection of the quick response to the changes in market conditions at Deere.
Joel Tiss (Lehman Brothers): Can you comment on the pricing on the like-for-like products in the non-AG businesses?
Marie Z. Ziegler: On the non-AG businesses, we have not announced the pricing for 2008 on the construction and I do not know what is coming out on the commercial and consumer side. Typically the pricing strategy there is that you get benefit from the features in the markets.
Michael J. Mack, Jr.: We do have a very extensive product introduction on the commercial mowing side and the C&C division this year, and it will be the best product lineup we have had there on the large frame zero turning radius mowers since we have ever been in the business, so that is going to be a real positive on that side.
Joel Tiss (Lehman Brothers): What is in the credit portfolio between AG and construction?
Marie Z. Ziegler: By market, AG equipment is about 60% of the portfolio, construction is about 20% to 25%, commercial and consumer about 10%, and AG financial services, which would be the farm plan, is about 5%.
Robert Wertheimer (Morgan Stanley): The outlook for Western Europe is flat to slightly up. That is a market that has not grown much secularly but it has been doing much better. What is causing to see the slowdown?
Marie Z. Ziegler: It is a market that essentially we have for a long time viewed as one somewhat in decline as they have been changing the common agricultural policy payout. We did in 2007 see some pull ahead into 2006 because of the change in the value-added tax in Germany. In 2008, we see good farm incomes but unlike the U.S. where you have a dip in industry demand, you have also got some recovery here, you did not ever have that in the Western European markets. They have a lot more livestock, so the income streams are a lot more diversified than they would be in the U.S. market. You are coming at it from a better base.
Robert Wertheimer (Morgan Stanley): Credit and net income guidance is up around 4%, which seems low, given how strong your volumes will be and have been recently. Is that funding pressures or is that higher provisioning? |