Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): You are assuming no stronger pricing next year than this year, despite the industry utilization being much higher entering the year. Could you comment on that?
Marie Z. Ziegler: You can not look at it on a single-year basis. We have a string of price increases, of positive price realization. You have got different factors going on in that up to, but we are looking at positive price realization in this company since 2002, a string of them, so you can not just look at it in a single year. There are difficult conditions in the construction equipment market, where we hope not to lose price but it is hard to envision that.
Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): Can you comment on your external engine business growth and qualify how this growth is trending 2008 versus 2007?
Marie Z. Ziegler: The external side of the business has less robust growth as we go into 2008, reflecting some of the difficulties in the construction related sectors that might impact that.
Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): The inventory for the quarter was down from the third quarter but up from last year by almost $400 million. How much of that is coming from acquisitions?
Marie Z. Ziegler: LESCO added 165 year over year and then we have about $50 million going the other way from the sale of Nortrax South operations. The net is 115.
Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): Did that represent the pre-build?
Marie Z. Ziegler: Those are two different divisions. The pre-build occurred in AG. Overall inventory went up about almost $400 million, and 115 came from acquisitions, so there was another almost $300 million from AG. For the AG division, currency is about $200 million, and in total it is about $300 million for the full company.
Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): What do you think are the biggest growth drivers in places like Central Europe, Russia Central and South America?]
Michael J. Mack, Jr.: Our tractors do well in Russia and the other CIS countries because our lineup and the horsepower sizes is a good match for that, and so we anticipate some strong demand in those countries for some time. In markets like Latin America, this additional capacity we have and new product lineup also positions us well for the growth that is going to be occurring in Brazil and we have continuously been investing in the small tractor lineup in other parts of the world as well, so they can compete more effectively and have a better value proposition.
Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): You say you are reducing the size of the tractors to be more competitive in local markets. Is that fair?
Michael J. Mack, Jr.: It depends on the market. 50% increase in Central Europe is quantum changes and some of that is currency too.
Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): How much of that is currency?
Michael J. Mack, Jr.: 5% of the 8% is currency, full company.
Alex Blanton (Ingalls & Snyder): Do you have it broken down by region?
Marie Z. Ziegler: No.
Mark Koznarek (Cleveland Research): You had 56% volume production that did not all go to revenue at the AG equipment. Can you talk about that and the operating margin there?
Marie Z. Ziegler: Our guidance for 2008 for the AG division is incremental margins will be 25%. In terms of what happened in the fourth quarter,we did have some higher R&D. A lot of that is AG oriented in the quarter because of this huge number of product launches, like the 9000 series tractors, the cotton pickers, the new combines, and so we had introduction expenses that would have affected SG&A and plus a lot of growth, a lot of the increase ex-LESCO would still be related to the AG division. The other thing is that when you increase your production, when not all of that ended up getting sold so it is not all included in sales of that increase in our ending receivables and inventory, and so some portion of that, we only got a manufacturing margin on. We did not get the selling margin and that will flow through over the course of the next year.
Mark Koznarek (Cleveland Research): LESCO was a public company before you bought it, so it was marginally profitable and it lost some money in the fourth quarter. What is the outlook for next year?
Marie Z. Ziegler: We are absorbing some of our integration expenses as we are moving through our outlook. It has been and continues to be that they will be profitable after we have owned them for a year. That will occur later next year, later in 2008 for us. The full year outlook is that LESCO is basically break-even on an operating profit basis and they are performing in line with plans. |