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Market Update Analysis: 
Deere & Company Fourth Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Rozalina Destanova
123jump.com
Last Update: 4:41 AM EST November 24 2007


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The maker of agricultural and commercial equipment’s revenue grew 20% to $6.14 billion, exceeding expectations of $5.8 billion. The favorable currency translation added 9 percentage points to that sales growth. Equipment operations revenue increased to $5.42 billion from $4.49 billion in the prior year. Sales in the company''s agricultural division increased, helping to offset declines in construction and forestry revenue. The company expects Q1 equipment sales to rise about 25%.

 
Jamie Cook (Credit Suisse): Are you expecting any negative impact from third-party supplier constraints or any internal capacity constraints in 2008?

Marie Z. Ziegler: I just went around and checked with our operating units and we have the material plans to meet the forecasts that we have just provided to you, we can meet these build plans, these build schedules. At any given time there are some areas where there is tightness, but we have the material plans and the agreements with our suppliers to meet these projections.

Ann Duignan (Bear Stearns): Could you expand on your outlook for worldwide AG tonnage up 9% in 2008 versus revenues up 17%?

Marie Z. Ziegler: We did a pre-build in the fourth quarter, so we have some significant increases. The other thing that comes into play here is some of that 17% increase is coming from just the incremental add of Ningbo.

Ann Duignan (Bear Stearns): Can you comment on the early order program for combines?

Marie Z. Ziegler: Combines and sprayers and planters all have had good early order program. One other thing that might help add color is as you think about that up 9%, that reflects all product lines in the AG markets and as you are seeing good levels of activity in things that are candidly primarily related to beans and corn, big tractors, big combines, the sprayers and planters. You look at cotton. That is a very competitive segment right now. Smaller tractors, which would have more of an economic tie, would be more difficult and also hand forage equipment. That estimate is looking at all segments of the market.

Ann Duignan (Bear Stearns): You bought back 14 million shares for less than $1 billion two years ago and 17 million shares last year for $1.3 billion. Why would the company not consider an accelerated share repurchase program?

Michael J. Mack, Jr.: We have been buying these in the open market since the inception of this program and we do have at our option the flexibility of either accelerating or decelerating this. We are not going to signal the pace of this, but we view this as a steady approach is what makes sense in our circumstance. Balanced uses of cash invest in the business, dividends, as well as share buy-back. We do have liquidity available to us.

Ann Duignan (Bear Stearns): Would you consider an accelerated share repurchase program at this point, given your liquidity?

Michael J. Mack, Jr.: We are not going to say right now what the pace is going to be for next year.

Andrew Casey (Wachovia): Can you comment on the early order program for combines and four-wheel drive tractors, specifically, the percent of planned combine production that is already booked for 2008?

Marie Z. Ziegler: We do not have early order programs on tractors. We have early order programs on seasonal equipment. Tractor availability for the 9000s, that is a new product for us and we are delighted with the market’s response to it, availability would go into July right now. On 8000s, you are looking at about April. Combines is a new product family with significant improvements in productivity for our customers and we are seeing good market reception to those combines. We still have availability left but suffice it to say our numbers are high.

Andrew Casey (Wachovia): You do not have an early order program on tractors, it seems like these lead times are extraordinarily long and they are happening quicker than usual. Is that a fair assessment?

Marie Z. Ziegler: We are doing our best to meet customer demand. We did pre-build in the fourth quarter. On the 9000s, it is fair to note that we are in a product transition, so you cleaned out the inventories of the older stuff as you transition to the new stuff and the market response to those products has been extraordinary, so we are pleased. You are looking also at a global market for these bigger products on combines and on the big tractors, so we are satisfying customer demand in different geographies.

Andrew Obin (Merrill Lynch): How much cushion do you have to raise production the second half of the year if demand comes in two times what you are expecting?

Marie Z. Ziegler: We do have additional ability and it would vary timing wise and by geography. We are interested in meeting our customer demand. We are also interested in doing so in a rational, reasonable and sustainable fashion. We are doing a good job of balancing that in the face of good market conditions and new products that have been introduced.

Andrew Obin (Merrill Lynch): What makes you confident that construction and forestry will effectively bottom out in 2008?

Marie Z. Ziegler: What you are seeing is that in 2008, we are able to produce to retail demand. In the comparison, you have in it a time when we took out about $250 million out of inventories, both dealer and company-owned, so you have got that ability to produce to retail and that is a significant factor. You also have the overseas forestry markets, which we see down but still holding up good. For the independent rental companies, we have had a significant decline in 2007. Our markets were down about 70% in that segment. We expect that to be flattish next year, so we have got a number of factors at play there. The single biggest factor has been the fact that we have managed those inventories and so we are able to produce to retail. If the market conditions change, we may have to reassess that but our outlook is based on housing starts, which we indicated of 1.1 million.

Terry Darling (Goldman Sachs): The impact of the growth initiatives, tier three, tier four is about five percentage points incremental margin hit in FY2008. What was that hit in FY2007?

Marie Z. Ziegler: I do not have a specific quantification but incremental margins generally for the AG division for the full year were around 30%. The ramp-up in the growth expenditures, the year-over-year increment in growth would be less.
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