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Market Update Analysis: 
Aeropostale Third Quarter Earnings Call
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 12:54 AM EST December 01 2006


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Aeropostale recorded 25% earnings increase over last year which exceeded the company’s initial expectations. The specialty apparel retailer achieved total net sales of $385 million, an increase of 18.7% driven by square footage growth of approximately 11% and a 5.6% comparable store sales increase. For the fourth quarter the company expects earnings in the range of 89 cents to 91 cents per share, including a 1 cent charge related to the expensing of stock options.

 
The company does not want to comment because it feels that from a competitive stance to tell everybody what it would be doing would be a juggle so that topic will be unfold on a weekly basis.

Can you discuss the impact of your advertising campaign?

There are marginal increases to the marketing budget in fourth quarter with more emphasis on radio. The company used radio effectively for the Black Friday weekend and will be using it during December 14 weekends also.

Do you accept to continue to use print ads as a way to reach out to new customers?

It is part of Aeropostale’s initiative to use print ads strategically in different times of the year. That does reinforce the fashion correct image of the company and it will be using it in 2007.

You mentioned that there was about a three cents drag in the quarter from the Jimmy''Z stores. What is that year-to-date and what would you expect it for year end?

Year-to-date, the Jimmy''Z loss is approximately 8 cents to 9 cents. For the fourth quarter, Aeropostale expects this to be 3 cents to 4 cents so the full year will be 12 cents to 13 cents.

At what point do you feel it will become break-even and accretive?

The company has not publicly disclosed at what point it thinks it will become accretive. For next year the company does not think it will still be a drag on its projections as next year’s growth from a store count will be similar to this year in term of total stores Aeropostale growth.

What remodeling opportunities are you going to have in your store prototype?

There is a store in Woodfield which is exceeding expectations. The company has opened up a second store which is a new store for it in Florida in the Fort Myers area and a new center in Coconut Point. Next year the plan is to roll out that store design into all of Aeropostale’s new stores, and anything that the company remodels next year will be in the new store design. At the same time, the company is looking at selective markets to convert some of the existing stores potentially early to take advantage of that new prototype.

Is Canada the only new market that you are thinking about or are there others contemplated?

There are markets that are interesting other than Canada, but Aeropostale is going to take one thing at a time and do Canada first. There are other opportunities throughout the Americas and in Asia or in Middle East, which may come to fruition in the future.

Are the thousand stores still the goal for Aeropostale or does it go up because you are now thinking Canada and perhaps elsewhere?

1000 stores is a solid number in the United States, and that is still the United States number. Anything the company does internationally will be on top of that.

Your veneer program was moving up the age of your consumers. Have you noticed this happening?

The age of the customer fundamentally stays the same. There is a trend that the young customers do want to look more like the older teenage customer. By looking more like what the older teenagers wear, the company still attracts the young customers.

Your promotions for Black Friday were the same like last year. What do you think drove the comparable store sales if it wasn’t promotions?

The success is based on a change in what the merchandise is and a change in what the perception of the brand is. The brand is more highly regarded today than it was a year ago. The promotion with the bear was fun and it had a lottery with some lucky customers going to win a $100,000 from getting one of the bears. The new store experience, the revised image of the brand, and the better merchandise assortment all coalesced to have a good weekend.

What are your expectations on SG&A looking into 2007?

The company will provide more details on 2007 both in terms of guidance and the components of that on its fourth quarter call. The company tries to rollout its investments in the new stores in the West Coast, DC and the allocation system. It will start incurring the cost before it starts to see the benefit so in the first half of the year it is going to see some pressure on the SG&A side for funding those investments. It will also be targeting the short term improvements in the merchandise margins and the goal was not to an expensing impact on the operating margins early next year. Aeropostale should start to see benefits of the SG&A investments in the back half of 2007.
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