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Earnings Analysis: 
Ross Stores Fourth Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Albena Toncheva
123jump.com
Last Update: 6:51 AM EST March 21 2006


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Growing sales and margin increases led the off-price retailer to a 37% growth in fourth-quarter earnings. The company''''s gross margin advanced by 185 basis points, partially offset by a nearly 70 basis point jump in expenses. During 2005, the company completed the two-year $350 million stock repurchase program, buying back a total of 6.4 million shares of common stock in 2005 for an aggregate purchase of $175 million.

 
Is there something different in the approach than what was done in the previous two years, as you rolled out your new system?

The company is going to be more cautious and pilot more than in the past.

Regarding the EBIT margin outlook – is it possible at some point to get back to the 9.5% level? What are the one or two things that would have to happen to achieve that? What timeframe is realistic to start to approach that level of EBIT margin?

Over the next several years the company hasn’t banned it from a timeframe standpoint that the Ross Stores model can deliver that getting back to more historical norms as continuing to focus on three principal areas of the business – new store productivity in some of the newer markets, the company got to get that back to pace.

The company continues to focus in the DCs from a productivity standpoint and continues to focus on our shrink initiatives and that''s what the enterprise is focused on. We think once we''re successful around those three dimensions that there''s no reason in our view why more historical levels can''t be achieved.

In your view there''s nothing that''s changed in the competitive landscape or anything external to Ross that would imply that the company level of profitability is more appropriate at a slightly lower level than achieved in the past?

Yes. The company is not seeing anything from a competitive market. The company looks in its markets where it has historically been, they''re performing well. The management thinks it''s going to be gradual and it''s going to be over a period of time.

Comment on your merchandise trends?

The early spring start off is consistent with where the company was last year. Juniors and Shoes continue to lead the pack. The Home business has come out of the box very strong. The Home getting much stronger is the biggest difference from where the company was trendwise coming into the year. The trends aren’t very different at dd''s as it relates to Juniors and Shoes. They both are very strong. The young businesses though at dd''s are a little stronger than they are at Ross.

In terms of adjusting the merchandise assortment, you said you thought that would take two to three years before you got it right. Why would it take so long?

In an off price business there are differences and constraints in terms of supply and matching up that supply with the trends that the company sees in the stores is not a trivial thing to do and there''s some complexity around it. Realistically it will be 24 months before the company is in a position to actually see benefits from that.

How fast are you turning inventories at the store level?

They''re turning historical levels. The company turns those inventories around six times.

With your key competitor out talking about refocusing on core off price disciplines and buying closer to need, have you seen any change in the buying landscape as it relates to the competition to buy the better merchandise that''s out there?

No. The company has always met up with TJX and its suppliers. There is nothing materially different.

In addition to the planning at the local level, you said about 24 months until you see the benefits from that. Are there any other initiatives you have to improving the new stores, local marketing events or increasing local advertising?

No. When the company has gone through this before and looked at troubled regions, the management’s conclusion has always been it''s merchandise.The company’s marketing levels are appropriate and are not the key driver as in off price. The company is not comfortable with what it is putting in these stores. In off price if you put the right merchandise in the store you''ll succeed. It''s not a marketing-driven business.

Is there any region you''re predominantly playing the 55 Ross Stores?

It will be reflective of last year on a percentage term basis.

In terms of the growth potential you have in existing markets, what is that relative to the number of stores you have now?
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