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Earnings Analysis: 
FPL Group Second Quarter Earnings Call
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 3:06 AM EDT September 25 2006


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The electricity services provider’s largest unit, Florida Power and Light, reported GAAP earnings of $182 million compared to $201 million during the 2005 second quarter. In the last 12 months, the average number of FPL accounts increased by 85,000 or 2%, which is below the average growth experienced in the last several years, but in line with previously announced customer growth expectations and longer term levels. For fiscal 2007, EPS is projected to be in the range of $3.15 to $3.35.

 
The company hasn’t witnessed any degradation. As always with wind projects, the challenge is to get the confluence of wind resource transmission, land owner, local community acceptance, all of these things together and obviously at the customer market for the energy and the green tax. Generally the complication is getting all of those things to come together in one spot and not wind resource by itself.

What are you seeing trend wise, in terms of the slow housing market?

The company expects that there would be some slowdown in customer growth because the last couple of years it has really been well. It’s kind of in line with what FPL was expecting, around the 2% level, and it expects that to continue for the next few years. On the usage side, there was no usage growth in aggregate, because in January the company had to pass through increase in the fuel bill which made some price elasticity impact. Once it passes through and the new price level is reestablished, unless there is another big increase in prices, the company would expect to see the underlying usage growth return. The underlying usage growth is driven by the improving economic conditions and Florida’s economy continues to do extremely well, outpacing the national economy.

How is the Florida commission responding to the merger though you are not required by law to get its approval?

Florida doesn’t have to approve the merger but the commission retains its overall responsibility and regulatory authority over rate conditions of service. The commission and the staff are intensely interested in the potential impact of the deal to Florida’s FPL customers. The commission intervened in the third proceeding and they are taking an active role and they are watching and waiting. FPL would expect that they and interveners in Florida would be watching out carefully to make sure that this deal does have a positive impact for FPL customers.

How much do you expect to spend on an annual basis on the Storm Secure program?

The company doesn’t have a clear answer to this question for the following reasons. This year the company undertook a number of early projects, hardening the infrastructure for some critical customers and some critical infrastructure in the state. FPL is beginning to get some practical experience as to what the appropriate upgrades are likely to be. FPL is trying to figure out how much productivity enhancement it is going to get as it scales up the program. The second complicated driver is the company is still working through what is the appropriate prioritization, which feeders to tackle first, the economics from doing some facilities as clusters, different geographical areas. The company is still working on translating the principles into a detailed plan. All that can be said is that it will be material to FPL’s CapEx over the course of time.

Are you capturing any benefit of the recent forward capacity market of ruling in New England and implementation of the old LICAP?

There is not much impact in 2006. There will be some benefit in 2007. This is one of the qualitative drivers that the company is aware is behind its statement. FPL believes that right now the upper half of the range for 2007 is realistic.

What are your thoughts on the planned sale of the gas plants?

While the company is comfortable with the portfolio that it has, FPL is always looking at other opportunities to improve by rationalizing that portfolio.

What do you think of potential benefits and/or impediment to a potential IPO of the wind business?

FPL is not convinced that it is seeing full value for the business and the strategy reflected in market place. The company has not yet come up with a satisfactory structural alternative. One basic issue for the business is the way it has been supported from a policy perspective in this country. There are basically two methods: renewable portfolio standards and federal tax credit. The tax credit obviously means that a pure standalone early stage rapidly growing wind business is not going to have the overall taxable income to support itself.

What conditions might make it difficult for you to complete this merger?

So far there really has been no material change in value and as with all deals, there are series of puts and takes and FPL is comfortable with the current value proposition. But some of the important regulatory approvals haven’t been received yet, primarily Maryland. Like all utility mergers, the company will prepare to share a fair quota of the synergies.

When are you going to reinitiate the integration activity on the merger?

The company could close this deal and be ready for day one by starting up integration just in a matter of weeks or may be a month. FPL is trying to optimize the situation. The company is in constant dialogue with Constellation on this issue. At both companies everything is in good position for a comprehensive understanding of what everyone is going to do and what needs to be done for day one operations. Generally, the company is satisfied with the situation in that regard.

What is the impact of weather versus normal wind so far this year?

As the first quarter weak the weather impact was plus 10% on degree days. This quarter year-to-date it is about flat.

Are you reiterating your earnings guidance with a bias towards the high end of the range despite the fact that you’re charging off the costs of the storm damage that you weren’t allowed to recover?
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