With sustained demand growth in China and an attractive domestic market for the major Chinese producers, the firm expects 2008 Chinese exports to remain essentially leveled.
- In Latin America where ANSAC continues to hold the favorite cost position, it achieved similar pricing success.
- Partially mitigating ANSAC''s favorable pricing trends in Asia and Latin America is the impact of rising ocean freight cost, but it remains competitively advantageous as result of its scale, dedicated vessels, and the portfolio of multi year contracts.
- North American demand for hydrogen peroxide, grew by 2% to 3%, and expectation for 2008 is for somewhat slower demand growth of 1% to 2%.
- Growth will continue to be driven by pulp demand and the trend toward higher brightness papers supplemented by growth from new applications and antimicrobial and environmental markets.
At the European hydrogen peroxide business at Foret, in Western Europe hydrogen peroxide demand grew 1%, down from the 4% average growth experienced in the prior three years.
- The slower pace in demand growth was largely attributable to weaker European pulp production, due to fiber shortages early in 2007 and the impact of the stronger euro on pulp exports.
- With slower than expected market growth, a number of minor hydrogen peroxide capacity additions resulted in the industry operating rates dropping to the 88% to 89% level.
- There is speculation that China plans to take a further step by instituting an export tax on STPP and other phosphorus chemicals as part of its effort to regulate exports of natural resource based high energy content product.
First Quarter 2008 Outlook:
- Earnings expected to be between $1.15 to $1.20 per diluted share driven by double-digit earnings growth in all of the operating segments, but partially offset by higher raw material cost.
- In Ag products, earnings are expected to increase 10% to 15% due to the continued growth in Brazil and Asia and the benefit of further supply chain improvements.
- In Specialty Chemicals, earnings are also expected to be up 10% to 15% driven by strong commercial performance in both BioPolymer and lithium and the benefit of continued productivity improvements.
- In Industrial Chemicals, earnings are expected to double the level of last years first quarter as aggregate price and volume benefits and higher electricity selling prices in Spain more than offset higher raw material cost.
Fiscal 2008 Outlook:
- Earnings before restructuring and other income and charges expected to be between $3.80 to $4 per diluted share, a 26% increase above 2007.
- In Ag products, revenue is expected to be up 5% to 10% as a result of the healthy global economy, new product introductions, and continued increased demand for biofuels.
- In specialty chemicals, revenue growth is expected in the mid single-digits as a result of continued volume growth across the segment and higher selling prices in BioPolymer.
- In Industrial Chemicals, revenue growth of 5% to 10% is expected driven by higher volumes and selling prices across businesses but particularly in soda ash.
Key questions and answers from the fourth quarter earnings call conducted by FMC Corp. on February 7, 2008.
Kevin McCarthy (Banc of America): Comment on domestic realizations versus international and where you see net backs given ocean freight costs?
Michael D. Wilson: The overall price increase that we saw in soda ash was in the mid teens across domestic and ANSAC. There is a substantial narrowing of the price differential between domestic and export pricing so that implies that we did realize significantly higher increases in the export market than we did in the domestic market.
Kevin McCarthy (Banc of America): Can you comment on any changes you expect in terms of industry structure participation in ANSAC?
Michael D. Wilson: With the most recent announcement of Tata buying in General we are moving from a private equity owner to a strategic owner. As you know source Searles Valley was bought by Nirma, another Indian company but in this case Searles Valley has not been has not been a member ANSAC for the past few years.
Unidentified Analyst: How do you see the interplay between acquisition opportunities growth opportunities and returning more cash to shareholders?
Kim Foster: Our strategy is to grow the business as opportunities avail themselves to us and to the extent that they do not, we would return excess cash to shareholders.
Unidentified Analyst: How much is left under the current authorization for share buyback?
Kim Foster: The authorization was $250 million and we have brought back this year about $110 million.
Unidentified Analyst: Anything else in the pipeline, new technologies or to add value?
William G. Walter: A number of technologies and product developments are underway. They include largely in 2008 label expansion and pre-mixes.
Unidentified Analyst: Is the growth from the agriculture segment sustainable? |