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Earnings Analysis: 
Coventry Plunges 23% on Earnings Warning
Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 11:53 AM EDT June 19 2008


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Coventry Health Care declined 23% after it lowered earnings for the quarter and for the rest of the year on higher than expected medical costs. Coventry is the latest of three health insurers to lower guidance after WellPoint and UniteHealth lowered their outlook earlier. The health care insurance sector has seen stocks decline in the last three months as invstors expect more revisions in the coming quarters.

 
[R]11:45AM New York – Coventry Health Care Inc plunged 23% after it lowered the earnings guidance for the quarter and for the rest of the year.[/R]

Coventry Health Care, Inc., a diversified healthcare company reported a revised operating outlook for 2008. The company reduced second quarter and full year 2008 earnings per share estimates. The Company expects second quarter diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.55 to $0.57 and full year diluted earnings per share in the range of $3.65 to $3.75.

Coventry is the latest health insurer that cut its earnings outlook after WellPoint and United Health Group had reduced their guidance months ago. UnitedHealth lowered its annual 2008 earnings by 10% to a range between $3.55 to $3.60 per share and WellPoint lowered for the year to a range between $5.42 and $5.67 per share.

""We are very disappointed with the April and May 2008 results and their anticipated effect on the second quarter and the full year,"" said Dale B. Wolf, chief executive officer of Coventry.

Several brokers lowered their ratings on the company after the earnings warning. BMO Capital Markets and Wachovia lowered their ratings on the company to ‘market perform’ from ‘outperform’ and Lehman cuts it price target to $41 from $53.

The Company expects the 2008 Medicare Advantage medical loss ratio to be between 85.5% and 85.9%, an increase of approximately 300 to 340 bps from the Company''s prior estimate. The Company is projecting negative development of PFFS reserves related to 2007 of approximately $50.0 million. The Company is forecasting the overall Medicare Advantage medical loss ratio to be between 87.2% and 87.6% for the first half of 2008

The Company''s revised 2008 health plan commercial group risk MLR forecast is approximately 80.3% versus previous guidance of approximately 78.8%. The Company is revising its revenue outlook from a midpoint of 23.9% growth over the prior year to a midpoint of 20.7%.

Lowered 2008 Guidance

The company estimates total revenues for each quarter between $2.95 billion and $3.00 billion. Third quarter diluted earnings per share in the range between $1.05 and $1.09. Fourth quarter earnings per share is estimated between $1.24 and $1.28. The company forecasts consolidated annual revenues between $11.80 billion to $12.045 billion.

Coventry Health Care, Inc. (CVH: chart) in the last one year traded as high as $64.00 in September 2007 and as low as $30.13 in June 2008 and in today’s trading stock fell $9.18 to $30.82.

Based on the yesterday''s closing price the company has a market cap of $ 4.85 billion.
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