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Earnings Analysis: 
Bill Barrett First Quarter Earnings Call
Author: Archana Eswara
123jump.com
Last Update: 4:55 AM EDT June 05 2006


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The revenue of the oil and gas producer, Bill Barrett rose from $51.9 million in the year ago quarter to $97.8 million, as the average sales price for natural gas rose to $7.34 per Mcfe versus $5.87 and average oil price grew to $50.62 from $42.69 in the year ago quarter. The company acquired CH4 for $79 million and the acquisition was funded with borrowings under the revolving line of credit. In 2006, the company anticipates participating in the drilling of 492 gross wells.

 
In the West Tavaputs, where the firm has 100% working interest, the company has two shallow rigs and one deep rig drilling in the field.

The environmental situation eased somewhat this past winter when the company received approval for setting eight wells during the winter season. Bill Barrett continues to push forward on its EIF, which will allow the company to have greater flexibility, in the number of wells it can drill. The company expects the EIF to be completed over the next one-and-a-half years. The firm produced a net 45 million a day from West Tavaputs in the first quarter of 2006. Production from the West Tavaputs shallow program in the Wasatch, North Horn, and Price River formations continues to exceed the company’s expectations. In fact, about 1.5 to 2 Bcf of the increase in 2006 production guidance was attributed to better than anticipated well performance from the shallow wells in West Tavaputs.

Overall this year, the company plans to spend nearly $100 million to drill a total of 25 shallow, 2 deep wells and also four additional compression in the West Tavaputs area. Pending EIS approval, the shallow program will be a multi-year development program of up to 180 wells on a 160-acre spacing for the shallow program. In 2006, the firm will test the viability of 80-acre spacing.

The company’s successful deep discovery test of the Dakota, Navajo, and Entrada formation continues to produce, allowing the expected decline curve.

The Peter''s Point 6-7D was producing an excess of 5 million a day as of the end of April. The company has identified over 20 160-acre locations in the Peter''s Point 3-D closure, the eastern structure surrounding as well. The firm will drill at least two of these deep locations in 2006. In fact, the first well, the 4-12D, is currently drilling. The 3-D seismic survey also indicates that there are future locations in which the company can drill up depth of the Peter''s Point 6-7. Finally, based on the 3-D seismic work, the company also recognizes a significant potential and extrapolates the very similar deep structural closure on the Western Prickly Pear that it plans to test in 2007.

In the Uinta Basin on the exploration front, the company will continue to add acreage to its Hook and Woodside areas.

The company expects to drill three exploration tests in Hook, a shallow expanse of a shell gas play in the parent formation in late third quarter. The company also plans a 6500-foot well in the fourth quarter at its Woodside project to test Pennsylvania-aged advanced stones on a seismically identified structural closure. The Woodside well will offset a well drilled in 1962 that reported a gas shows in the target formation.

In the Piceance, the company currently has three rigs operating in Gibson Gulch area.

Bill Barrett produced nearly 31 million a day in the first quarter and 37 million a day in April. The company’s well performance continues to improve having consistently established IPEs in the 1 to 3 million a day range. About 1 to 1.5 Bcf of the increase in production guidance relates to the improvement in Piceance well performance. The Piceance Basin continues to be competitive area for drilling rigs and field services. As a result, the company’s per well drilling complete cost are approaching about $2 million.

In the Wyoming area, the company’s Wind River Basin operations produced nearly 39 million a day in the first quarter.

The company is currently drilling and offset to the high volume Bullfrog 14-18 discovery well, and the Cave Gulch/Bullfrog area. The Bullfrog 33-19 was spud in January and should reach a total depth of about 19,500 feet this week. The company has a 93% working interest in this well. Gaseous well drilling in the Muddy, Frontier, and Lakota are all encouraging and structurally the company ended up higher than its anticipation. Testing and completion of the wells is expected to take place over the next 30 to 60 days. The management believes that there are over 30 additional locations in the Cave Gulch/Bullfrog area with deep potential and expects to drill one to three wells each year over the next 10 to 12 years.

The company has acquired and is currently processing a north extension to the Cave Gulch 3D survey, with the objective of imaging the north side of the field and to better refine its deep locations in the Cave Gulch area. The company’s other two high-profile Muddy wells, the Bullfrog 14-18 and the Cave Gulch 129 are currently producing 7.2 million a day and 6 million a day respectively. These wells have Frontier potential behind the pipe and Bullfrog 14-18 tested productive in the Lakota, which is also currently behind the pipe. Bill Barrett is also continuing with its recompletion program at its Cave Gulch 5-30 well as well as other wells targeting the Muddy and the Frontier formations.

Bill Barrett will evaluate another large exploration project in the Paradox space in Colorado in 2006.

One of the objectives at Bill Barrett is to be a leader in shale gas plays in the Rocky Mountain region. The company is in the process of clearing before drill sites and Yellow Jacket shale gas project for exploration activity in late 2006 and early 2007. The objective in this area is to obtain a 45% joint venture partner and evaluate this shale gas potential from a fractured gothic shale at a depth of 5,500 to 7,500 feet. Shale gas plays can be widespread resource plays. The company currently has over 96,000 net acres under lease in this prospect and still growing. Conservatively, this play has a growth unrisked upside of 500 Tcf.

Fiscal 2006 Guidance

- The company anticipates participating in the drilling of 492 gross wells for the full year 2006, of which 337 are planned coalbed methane wells in the Powder River Basin.
- Excluding the $80 million acquisition price for CH4 Corporation, net capital expenditures in 2006 are not expected to exceed the $350 million net capital budget, of which approximately $105 million is related to the Uinta Basin, $130 million to the Piceance Basin, $35 million to the Wind River Basin, $30 million to the Powder River Basin, $30 million to the Williston Basin, and $20 million for other budgeted items.

Key questions from the first quarter fiscal 2006 earnings call conducted by Bill Barrett Corp on May 9, 2006.

Can you talk about the natural decline that you are building into production outlook? It looks like the full year guidance is about 127 to 136 million a day, are you building in some conservatism with the existing wells?

The management takes into consideration a number of factors, including what it believes are the correct type well declines associated with these wells. The company is producing from five different regions all of which have five different types of declines. The Piceance starts out at 60% to 80% decline and then after a year, falls into a much slower decline in the 10% to 15% range, typical hyperbolic tight gas spend decline. West Tavaputs decline are a little bit different, they are more linear although they do have a hyperbolic shape. The company’s deep Cave Gulch area where it is producing out of the muddy, now they are a little bit like the Gulf Coast where the company is seeing significant decline during the first seven years. The Powder River Basin has to go through the dewatering phase for about 12 to 18 months. But right now, the company has a lot of flush production coming out of the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006 with a lot of depleted wells. But the management has a pretty good handle on what each area has in terms of the tight well curve.

Is Lake Canyon, with the 75% interest due, subject to the 25% back in the reversion side for the youth? Can it be reduced to 56% if they start participating?
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